Just like in today’s solar eclipse, the alignment is perfect for the Detroit Red Wings when it comes to qualifying for the playoffs after a seven-season absence.

Their Sunday win against Buffalo, coupled with Washington’s overtime loss to Ottawa, put the Red Wings in the Eastern Conference’s second wildcard spot by a point over the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers. The Red Wings play Washington Tuesday at Little Caesars Arena. Detroit plays the Penguins in Pittsburgh Thursday. Those two games will say much about Detroit’s playoff chances.

What it means: If the Red Wings win their last five games (against Washington, Pittsburgh, Toronto and two games against Montreal), they need no help. They would be in the playoffs.  Detroit also would get in if it matches the best record of the wildcard contenders. In other words, if the best record among contenders is 3-2 and Detroit matches that record, then they would qualify.

The Red Wings, Capitals, Penguins and New York Islanders have five games left. The Flyers, who have lost seven games in a row, have four games remaining. The Capitals have lost six in a row.  The Red Wings are 4-3-2 in their last nine. The Penguins are playing the best hockey in 6-0-1 in their last seven. The Islanders have lost five of their last six.

“This is what it’s about this time of year,” Detroit coach Derek Lalonde said. “We haven’t been here in eight years. Now only have we gotten here, our guys have worked their butts off to get here and we’ve earned it. I’m excited to see how we handle it.”

The New York Islanders, in a qualifying spot because they are in third place in the Metropolitan Division, could provide a complication for Detroit because the Islanders are one point ahead of the Red Wings. If a team passes the Islanders for third, New York moves into the wildcard race.  If, or when, the Islanders and Red Wings lose, the point becomes an issue.

One thought around the league is the Red Wings will get in if they beat Washington and Pittsburgh this week.

Tiebreaker Disadvantage

Detroit technically have a long-shot chance of earning the first wildcard position in the Eastern Conference. The Lightning, holding the first wildcard spot, have a nine-point lead over Detroit. That means if the Lightning earns one point or Detroit fails to earn two points, the Red Wings are eliminated from consideration for the first wildcard.

Something to keep in mind: the first NHL tiebreaker for playoff consideration is regulation wins. As of this morning, the Capitals, Penguins and Flyers have the tiebreaker advantage over Detroit. The Red Wings have the tiebreaker over the Islanders.

If Detroit earns the No. 8 seed  wildcard spot, the team will likely meet the New York Rangers in the opening round of the playoffs. They have a three-point lead (110 to 107) over the Boston Bruins for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Both teams have four games remaining. The Rangers own the tiebreaker over the Bruins.

In this season, Detroit is 0-3 against the Rangers and 2-2 versus the Bruins.

The post Latest Red Wings Playoff Scenario: They Control Their Destiny appeared first on Detroit Hockey Now.

Pulitzer Prize-winning poet Carl Sandburg once offered that arithmetic is where “numbers fly like pigeons in and out of your head.”

That quote seems particularly appropriate these days because the proliferation of legalized gambling has flooded the sports world with daily odds and numbers dealing with the probability of an outcome. We used to follow NHL playoff races simply by paying attention to wins and losses. Now, we receive regular updates on the probability of a team earning an NHL playoff spot.

On Sunday, Stathletes listed Detroit’s probability of earning an NHL playoff berth at 22.8%. But Detroit’s 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday was deemed important enough to raise their Stathlete playoff probability to 42.9%. MoneyPuck.com lists the Red Wings’ postseason probability at 40.5%.

The Red Wings are still not officially in a playoff spot, although they are tied, based on points, with the Washington Capitals for the final Eastern Conference wildcard position. Both teams have 82 points, but Washington technically owns the spot because it has two games in hand. The Capitals play a road game tonight against the Buffalo Sabres.

The Philadelphia Flyers are the complicating factor in the race. They have a playoff berth because they sit third in the Metropolitan Division race with 83 points. If the Capitals win tonight, the Flyers would move down to the last wildcard spot.

Per Stathletes, the current probability to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs:

EAST
Lightning: 99.9%
Capitals: 71.0%
Flyers: 50.5%
Red Wings: 42.9%
Islanders: 25.0%
Devils: 6.4%
Penguins: 4.0%
Sabres: 0.1%

WEST
Predators: 99.2%
VGK: 98.6%
Kings 91.9%
Blues: 6.7%
Wild: 3.6%

— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) April 2, 2024

Islanders Still Chasing Red Wings

Also, don’t lose sight of the fact that the New York Islanders, who beat Philadelphia Monday night, are only three points behind Detroit. The Islanders have a game in hand against Detroit. MoneyPuck.com says the Islanders have a 13.8% probability of earning a postseason position.

It is highly unlikely that the Capitals, Red Wings, Flyers or any other team will catch the Tampa Bay Lightning who have the first wildcard spot. With eight games left to play, the Lightning have a seven-point lead over both the Capitals and Red Wings. They are six up on the Flyers.

Should the Red Wings win the final wildcard spot,  they would play the New York Rangers based on today’s standings. By coincidence, Detroit’s next game is Friday against the Rangers. Detroit lost twice to the Rangers this season in Madison Square Garden.

But the division champions are unsettled. First-place Boston and second-place Florida are two points apart in the Atlantic, while the Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes are three points apart in the Metropolitan. The last wildcard team will play the division winner with the most points. Today, the Rangers have 104, while the Bruins and Hurricanes have 101.

All we know for sure is that the Red Wings only have seven games remaining, and probability percentages won’t matter unless Detroit wins the majority of those games.  They are coming off a 1-2-2 record on a five-game road trip.

Red Wings fans are sweating this out. As the late radio star Paul Harvey once said: “If there is a 50-50 chance something can go wrong, then nine times out of 10, it will.”

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